It seems that over the ages and to this day our natural state is one of hubris. We are the centre of the universe. We are unique in the plethora of life. We are masters of our own destiny and we make rational choices. We are unmatched as designers and strategists.

In this article, I argue that we should move from hubris to humility. And the basis of my argument is that everything I wrote in the paragraph above is incorrect.

Some of this you already know … in fact, the first three points below are sometimes referred to as the “three humbling blows to humanity” [1], [2].

1. Cosmological blow. Copernicus showed us that we're not centre of the universe. In fact, not only are we not the centre of the universe, but in recent years we have discovered that we seem to be just one of 10 sextillion (i.e. 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) planets in our universe (assuming one planet per star). To understand this seemingly preposterous number … Our earth is one planet circling one star of 100 billion stars in our galaxy, which is one galaxy of 100 billion galaxies in our known universe. And, it now appears that most stars have planets and that many planets are not dissimilar from ours [3].

2. Biological blow. Darwin showed us that we’re not on some special biological pedestal. He showed that we share a common ancestor with the apes. Initially Copernicus’ claims were challenged, but finally accepted and, similarly, Darwin’s theory of evolution initially met opposition from scientists with different theories, but eventually came to receive overwhelming acceptance in the scientific community [4].

3. Psychological blow. Freud showed us that we're not in control of our behaviours and destiny to the extent that we believed. As he put it “the ego is not master in its own house” when he explained the power of our unconscious minds. More recently, Kahneman and Tversky have convincingly demonstrated faults in rational choice theory, a bedrock of economics.

I propose that we are now experiencing a fourth humbling blow. Let’s call it the Cognitive blow. The cognitive blow is where we realize that even our talents to be insightful and creative are not unique attributes of human beings. As my previous article (see Strategic Decision Making in the Augmented Age) mentioned, we are being surpassed in design and in strategy by Artificial Intelligence.

Ray Kurzweil has written about the “Singularity”, a term first used by von Neumann in the context of technological progress causing accelerating change. In “The Singularity is Near” [6], Kurzweil writes: “Although the Singularity has many faces, its most important implication is this: our technology will match and then vastly exceed the refinement and suppleness of what we regard as the best of human traits.”

Kurzweil dates the Singularity (the tipping point where machines become exponentially smarter than humans) as 2045. Whether Kurzweil’s view is true or not is highly controversial [7], but it’s being taken seriously by the likes of Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and others [8].

In previous articles (see The Decision Advisory Blog) on intuition, forecast, cognitive biases, ethics, willpower, I have written about the need for humility when making strategic decisions. In this article, I offer a big picture perspective, but the message is the same. It is humility, not hubris, that will allow us an honest view of ourselves and the decisions we face.

End note: the alternative title considered for this post was "from Copernicus to Kahneman to Kurzweil".

References:

[1] “Freud, Biologist of the Mind: Beyond the Psychoanalytic Legend”, Frank Sulloway.

[2] “Is Human Nature Obsolete?: Genetics, Bioengineering, and the Future of the Human Condition”, Harold Baillie and Timothy Casey

[3] http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/fuzzy-thinking-wont-save-the-planet/8458478

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Objections_to_evolution

[5] https://www.singularityweblog.com/ray-kurzweil-pbs-immortality/

[6] “The Singularity is Near”, Ray Kurzweil

[7] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/425733/paul-allen-the-singularity-isnt-near/

[8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Letter_on_Artificial_Intelligence