It is clear that over the next two decades, forces driven by the game-changing technologies of Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotics, additive manufacturing, blockchain, biotech, energytech, etc, will have a profound impact on humankind and society as we know it.
Much is being written on the impact of these technologies, with expert opinions ranging from predictions of a utopian to a dystopian future. At the heart of these predictions is the debate over who benefits and loses from the step change in economic value added afforded by the application of these technologies.
However, with all that is being discussed, there is a dearth of useful commentary on the practical steps we must take to manage our trajectory towards more favourable outcomes. This is a complex topic that involves many role players, but one thing is clear: as human beings, we are the masters, not the slaves, of these technologies and hence the outcome is not predetermined; we can shape the future we want.
To achieve our desired outcome, we must start managing the journey now. Failure to do so will lead to an unpredictable outcome that could be a catastrophic future for ourselves and future generations. Success in doing so could lead to an even better place than today, where we are freed to do the things we enjoy as human beings, liberated from the constraints of the past.
In this article, we offer an initial view (for comment) of the imperatives to be undertaken by various stakeholder groups to avoid dystopia and instead enable the flourishing of humankind. We do this as a starting point to build a pragmatic framework and set of guidelines for role players to use to drive humankind towards a more utopian future.
Our perspectives on the future
Technology-enabled capabilities are increasing. Based on our research of the emerging technologies, we have identified and inferred a set of implications. Some implications are favourable, some are unfavourable, while other implications are still unclear:
Favourable:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) will enable jobs that were not previously possible.
AI, along with advances in energytech, will contribute to the potential of a world of abundance [22].
Blockchain-based solutions will enable the secure transfer of ownership, e.g. Redistribution of wealth via the provision of tokens or cryptocurrencies.
Unfavourable [9]:
Heaps of jobs (especially those largely comprised of well-defined tasks and/or which involve pattern recognition) will be made redundant [10], [18].
Developing economies will have less likelihood of catch-up by providing low cost labour (since labour is becoming less valuable) [20].
Large, traditional employment pools (soldiers, farm workers, factory workers, office workers) will no longer exist [19].
Unclear:
The future is unclear for many of the fundamental aspects of society that we currently take for granted, e.g. jobs, status, income, and others.
A favourable future will enable humankind to flourish by (a) freeing people up to do things that are more meaningful / rewarding and (b) allowing more people to focus on solving humankind’s issues as opposed to being consumed by mundane tasks that can be done by machines, and (c) more readily meeting the basic needs of all people. To achieve this:
“AI will enable jobs that were not previously possible” combines with three other trends to create new opportunities for people (versus the dull, dirty and dangerous jobs [21])
There will be no shortage of challenges to humankind, e.g. Cancer, climate change, etc [15]
There will be the possibility to leverage citizen science, collaborative platforms and the “cognitive surplus” [23].
The Gig economy will create new jobs and access to those jobs
A world of abundance (versus scarcity) will become possible, especially if there is a breakthrough in the provision of energy (e.g. economically viable fusion, or, more modestly, continued advancements in solar and battery technology). This, combined with AI, could lead to radically lowering the cost of basic products and services, e.g. transport, housing, education.
Redistribution of wealth could be delivered by a blockchain-based solution.
An unfavourable future is arguably more likely in the absence of deliberate intervention. In this scenario, there will be increasing inequality leading to a polarised world of a small “super class” and a huge “useless class”. Clearly, this will have devastating consequences, will be unsustainable, and will probably lead to a massive correction, e.g. via civil unrest.
The emergence of a “super class”:
As the owners of the intellectual property rights of AI algorithms capture increasing financial returns associated with the growing adoption of AI applications, they will become increasingly wealthy and powerful.
They will have the means to improve themselves through biotech, and hence will become both economically and biologically more capable (money, brainpower, stamina, etc.) thus enabling them to do even better, driving a reinforcing cycle [26].
Current institutions are not yet effective in driving the redistribution of wealth.
The emergence of a “useless class” [19]:
The job redundancy, lost chances for developing economies, and lack of need for people will mean that low-skilled people have little prospect.
These people will not have a means to earn income to meet their basic needs, they will be idle and hence lose purpose in their lives, and no-one (government, private enterprise, …) will care, because they cannot make any useful contribution.
They will become the “useless class” [19].
An impending massive correction might take place: economic and social issues will emerge that prevent these trends continuing unabated:
The “useless class” will have no means of income and hence no buying power. This means that the market for the algorithms will saturate and then radically contract.
No society can sustain massive inequality (super class and useless class), especially when the lower class is much larger. Societal transformation seems inevitable. It could occur anywhere on the continuum from mild (e.g. managed redistribution of wealth) to wild (e.g. class cleansing like the French revolution).
The unclear implications could change societal fundamentals that we take for granted today:
Value: We have the opportunity to reconsider the definition of value as human beings. We might move away from purely financials measures like GDP to a blend of monetary wealth and happiness, e.g. gross national happiness (GNH) and net worth.
Income: Many people might “earn” their income via the redistribution of wealth, not through employment. And that income might be in services, rather than in fungible currency. [1], [2].
Jobs: Many people might do what plays to human strengths (e.g. caring and creativity), leaving computers to do what they’re good at, and often this will be blended, i.e. “man + machine”. What people choose to do might be less driven by a desire for wealth accumulation, because in an age of abundance and wealth redistribution we all mostly have what we need [13].
Status: In a world where jobs are redefined, a person’s status will be assessed differently too. School teachers might now get the recognition they have always deserved. Example: Scandinavia.
Currency: Blockchain-based solutions are showing that they provide an alternative means for the transfer of value than old-style contracts and cash.
Countries: In a world where some tech companies are more economically powerful than most countries, national currencies largely replaced by crypto-currencies, and smart contracts forged using blockchain, does the nation state retain any locus of power?
Regulation: Historically regulation has been a responsibility of government, but as the scale and speed of new matters to be regulated accelerates and bypasses geopolitical boundaries, which agencies are the most appropriate regulators? [17].
Education: In a world where traditional roles are fast disappearing and we have the opportunity to focus on fulfilling roles aligned to solving meaningful world issues, how does our education system need to change, e.g. What is the best thing for our children? What value is there in a traditional university education? What are better alternatives?
Parenting: As parents, what educational institutions are best for our children? How will we help build their emotional and social intelligence? How do we prepare our children for a future that we are unfamiliar with?
The trends are not deterministic. But they are path dependent. In other words, the longer we allow these technologies to evolve without further intervention, the more difficult it becomes to take control of their impact on our destiny. With the stakes between utopia and dystopia being massive, the need to act is now. This analysis shows points of influence that could drive a favourable outcome, for example:
Possibilities for redistribution of wealth, especially when basic needs can be provided at very low cost.
Possibilities for new types of jobs and a redefinition of jobs in line with what people find meaningful (e.g. caring roles have often been done for reasons other than economic benefit).
The 5 Strategic Imperatives
We offer an initial view (for comment) of the imperatives to be undertaken by various stakeholder groups to avoid dystopia and instead enable the flourishing of humankind. These are:
Reframe the definition of value. In a future world where physical labour is largely replaced by robots, cognitive effort is largely replaced by artificial intelligence, and that which was scarce is now abundant (e.g. food, transport, housing), what will we value? Social relationships, creative works, unspoiled nature, other?
Liberate value creation. For humankind to flourish in a future world of abundance, that abundance must be equitably distributed - perhaps in the form of money, else in the form of products and services, or both. But, ultimately all people should have their basic needs met so that they apply themselves to more valuable pursuits (than, say, finding food and shelter).
Ignite value creation. Now that people are freed up to move up Mazlow’s hierarchy, they should be equipped do so. This entails igniting their passions, developing their skills, and directing their efforts. There is no shortage of human problems to solve (disease research, climate change, …) and these endeavours should be made known, accessible and easily able for people to contribute to.
Reinforce value creation. With basic needs met, some people might choose to do no more. But many (as shown in markets where universal basic income (UBI) has been tested) will apply themselves to realize their full potential and make valuable contributions. Rewards should be proportional to the contributions made.
Assure value realisation. The path to a world of human flourishing is enabled by organisations that make these things possible, viz. the automation of everything, the redistribution of wealth, the pursuit of solving the challenges of humankind. These private and public organisations need to act ethically (economically, socially, environmentally). This will require assurance and governance mechanisms.
In the next article, we will provide detail on the actions specific stakeholder groups must take and their specific roles in driving the imperatives above.
In the meanwhile, if you are interested or know of others working on this topic, we are seeking comments and connections to help build a broader point of view and action plan.
References:
[1] https://futurism.com/elon-musk-automation-will-force-governments-to-introduce-universal-basic-income/?utm_content=buffer5badb&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
[2] https://futurism.com/universal-basic-income-will-reduce-our-fear-of-failure/
[3] https://newsroom.accenture.com/news/accenture-joins-partnership-on-ai-bolsters-commitment-to-responsible-ai-that-benefits-people-and-society.htm
[4] https://www.accenture.com/us-en/blogs/blogs-nicola-morini-bianzino-responsible-ai
[5] http://www.wired.co.uk/article/deepmind-ethics-and-society-artificial-intelligence
[6] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609060/put-humans-at-the-center-of-ai/amp/
[7] https://www-thehindu-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/ai-to-create-jobs-by-2020-says-gartner/article19818440.ece/amp/
[8] https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6318492715097026560
[9] https://www.irishtimes.com/business/innovation/the-ai-apocalypse-will-the-human-race-soon-be-terminated-1.3019220?mode=amp
[10] http://www.eng.ox.ac.uk/about/news/new-study-shows-nearly-half-of-us-jobs-at-risk-of-computerisation
[11] https://deepmind.com/applied/deepmind-ethics-society/
[12] https://www.partnershiponai.org/
[13] https://www.ted.com/talks/sebastian_thrun_and_chris_anderson_the_new_generation_of_computers_is_programming_itself
[14] https://www.ted.com/talks/martin_ford_how_we_ll_earn_money_in_a_future_without_jobs
[15] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRmQTWpkaVU
[16] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/22/wef-18-oxfam-says-worlds-richest-1-percent-get-82-percent-of-the-wealth.html
[17] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/02/podcast-your-government-needs-updating
[18] https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/2017-in-review/automation-and-the-future-of-work
[19] “Homo Deus”, Yuval Noah Harari
[20] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/02/the-future-of-economic-convergence
[21] https://www.ge.com/digital/blog/dull-dirty-dangerous-its-robot-work
[22] http://bigthink.com/think-tank/are-we-ready-for-the-coming-age-of-abundance
[23] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_Surplus
[24] https://www.facebook.com/worldeconomicforum/videos/10155138816156479/
[25] http://www.exponentialview.co/podcasts/
[26] https://soundcloud.com/exponentialview/homo-deus-a-conversation-between-yuval-harari-and-azeem-azhar