When it comes to making intuitive judgments or decisions, would you rather trust your own brain or that of a machine?

What an intriguing question! Our intuition comes to us quickly and without our dependence on any external source. But, as discussed in "Reliability of Intuition", the reliability of our intuition is questionable in most circumstances. However, the conditions for reliability of intuition might apply in many more cases if we rely not only on our own experiences, but that of millions or gazillions of other people’s experiences too. Big data along with machine learning has much in common with our personal intuition.

It does better when …

1. there have previously been numerous similar decisions

2. there has been feedback on how those decisions turned out

Essentially, we are pattern recognition creatures and it is in pattern recognition that we have, until recently, been unmatched by machines. However, AI capabilities are extending into pattern recognition. As machines improve in pattern recognition “the boundary of what is best done by machines and what is best done by humans will keep changing” [1].

Google’s CEO: “In the long run, I think we will evolve in computing from a mobile-first to an AI-first world” [2]. And, this is supported by a recent World Economic Forum survey which found that almost half of the executives surveyed expect the first AI machine to be on a company’s board by 2025 [3].

In some respects, it is happening even faster: “There is this venture fund that announced recently that one of their directors is now going to be an algorithm” [1].

Accenture’s view is that AI is no longer just a decision-support tool, instead intelligent machines are becoming active partners in the C-suite [4]. And, “recent advancements in AI will affect all levels of management, from the C-suite to the front line” [5].

To be clear, this is not about “us OR them”, it is about “us AND them”, as Pedro Domingos explains: “For the foreseeable future, in most jobs, it will be a combination of human and computer that works best” [1].

References:

[1] Pedro Domingos, http://theknowledgeproject.libsyn.com/rss (2016/8/30)

[2] Google CEO Sundar Pichai on Alphabet's Q1 earnings call (April 2016)

[3] “Deep Shift: Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact,” Global Agenda Council on the Future of Software and Society Survey Report (September 2015)

[4] “A machine in the C-suite”, Accenture

[5] “The promise of artificial intelligence: Redefining management in the workforce of the future”, Accenture Institute for High Performance