It occurred to me that the fundamentals of Decision Analysis are, in effect, an application of Stoicism. Maybe that’s obvious to the decision analysts out there and possibly to the Stoics too, but it wasn’t obvious to me and so I figured this is an insight worth sharing.
Why do I say that Decision Analysis is applied Stoicism?
Let’s start with a quick description of the theory of Decision Analysis extracted from the “Foundations of Decision Analysis” [1].
What makes strategic decision making challenging is uncertainty. Suppose for each alternative we face when making a decision, we had a video showing the future course of our lives in as much detail as we wished. Then we could easily make the decision. Uncertainty is inseparable from all significant decisions. To master decision making we must become competent in dealing with uncertainty.
Dealing competently with uncertainty requires working with probability problems. Our evolutionary past does not equip us with this intuition as neatly demonstrated in "Trust your intuition: win a goat!" and in this extract from [1]. “Solving probability problems intuitively is as likely to be successful as a pilot flying in bad weather without visible reference and without instruments.”
As discussed in "Reward good effort, not outcome" and "Judge decision quality on process, not outcome", the most important principle of Decision Analysis is distinguishing between a decision and the outcome that follows it. Based on inherent uncertainty, good decisions can have bad outcomes; bad decisions can have good outcomes. The quality of decision making depends only on the quality of the thought and analysis that you have used in making it. [1]
Once you commit yourself to making good decisions there is no place in your life for regret or guilt. Good decisions never become bad; bad decisions never become good. [1]
Ok, so Decision Analysis theory says there is no place for regret or guilt. What do the Stoics have to say?
The goal of Stoicism is to achieve equanimity, a dispassionate attitude to events. The idea as far as regret is concerned, is that we ought to learn from past events, including, of course, our mistakes. But we should do this with equanimity, without indulging in feelings of guilt that don’t actually do any work other than make us feel bad about something that cannot be changed. [2]
The unchangeability of the past means that what has already happened is not under our control, but our current actions are. So, we should focus in the here and now, where our power of agency is actually effective, not dwell on something that is now permanently outside of our reach. [2]
If you can change the thing that causes your regret, then do it. If you cannot, then let go of your regret because it's wasted time and energy and you should move on with your life and the things you can change. [3]
Or, in the words of Nietzsche: “Never yield to remorse, but at once tell yourself: remorse would simply mean adding to the first act of stupidity a second.”
But, not everyone agrees. Henry David Thoreau: “to regret deeply is to live afresh”
Now back to Decision Analysis to round it out. Not only should we not have regret after the decision, we should not have anxiety before the decision.
If you make good decisions, there is no place for regret in your thinking. Just continue to make good decisions. Why regret if you made a good decision and the outcome was out of your control? [1]
If you find yourself worrying about a decision before making it, transfer your energy to making sure that it is the best decision you can make. [1]
Closing with a secular version of the serenity prayer: “I seek the serenity to accept what I cannot change; the courage to change what I can, and the wisdom to know the difference”.
References:
[1] “Foundations of Decision Analysis”, Howard, Abbas
[2] https://howtobeastoic.wordpress.com/2016/11/25/whats-the-point-of-regret/
[3] https://www.reddit.com/r/Stoicism/comments/1k2v20/stoicism_and_regret/